This morning I met via Zoom with our district's human resources director to discuss options for me returning safely to teach. She was excellent, listening to my concerns and thinking through options including adding a plexiglass barrier between me and my students and eliminating my time in the hall while students are passing unmasked. She also said my age, history of cancer, and care-taking responsibilities for my mother-in-law might qualify me for a 12-week leave.
I hadn't even thought about that on a serious level. My goal has been to buck up, mask up, establish a posture of "don't come near me" and avoid contagion.
But this afternoon Max and Andrea (in New Zealand) lectured me with the mathematics of the pandemic. As of today, our community's infection has doubled more than 6 times (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64) in 124 days. We number 90 cases today.
Max said that without tightening restrictions, we can expect our county's infection to double at the same rate: another six times in the next 120 days: 128, 256, 512, 1024, 2048, 4098. By December, nearly half of our county will have contracted the virus. At Iowa's current 2% death rate, we will experience COVID 80 deaths in our small community by Christmas.
-------------------------
A little later Eloise called from Florida. Her dominant message was to remind me that the virus is always two to four weeks ahead of what the community perceives. At some point, she said, Cass County will get serious about its contagion rate and decide to lockdown with masks and quarantining. But the upswing does not stop on a dime. When (if) we decide to pull the reins, it will take at least two weeks to slow the runaway horse.
----------------------
No Iowan wants to sound histrionic. We are can-do, pull-your-own-weight, stay-calm sort of people. My daughter reminded me that this dimension of my Iowa identity is usually a good thing. But in facing the realities of a pandemic that has not yet peaked its first wave in our state, opening our schools with Iowa-Can-Do is Iowa-Foolish.
Enough.
Be well.
Write.
Allison
 |
| Daily FaceTime with my sweet grandbaby. |
No comments:
Post a Comment